A Green Ark analysis of a recent pricing study in Addiction, October 2026

A US study published on PUBMED of 864,616 cannabis sales records found that a 1% cut in the price of flower went with a 2.29% rise in grams sold.

That’s very price-sensitive demand. Here’s what it could mean once you lay it against the law in each state.

The study
Researchers Michael Cooper and Yuyan Shi looked at checkout data from licensed stores in ten US adult-use states, 2020 to 2023 (published in Addiction, October 2026). Over those four years the median price of flower fell from $8.23 to $6.12 a gram. Their conclusion: falling prices push up demand, and well-designed excise taxes could push the other way.

What it could mean for businesses

1. Know your break-even margin. At this level of price sensitivity, a small price cut only adds profit if your flower margin is above about 44%. A 10% cut would lift grams by about 27% and revenue by about 15%, but at a margin below about 47% you sell more and make less.
   (My calculation: it takes the study’s average figure for all ten states and applies it to one store. Your own customers may react more or less to price, especially if competitors match your cut.)
2. The medical route is worth more than a discount. Washington charges a 37% excise on adult-use sales, but none on registered patients at medically endorsed stores until June 2029. Colorado patients pay 2.9% instead of 15% plus 15%. And since April 2026, licensed medical operators with DEA registration can deduct normal business costs again (280E no longer applies to them), although the IRS guidance is still to come.
3. Watch Michigan. Its new 24% wholesale tax from January 2026 points to roughly 11% to 23% fewer grams sold.
   (My calculation: it assumes the tax raises shelf prices by 5% to 12%, depending on how much is passed on, and that buyers respond as the study’s average suggests.)
4. Weight-based taxes hit value flower hardest. Alaska’s $50 an ounce is about 29% of an ounce at the study’s 2023 median price ($6.12 a gram, about $171 an ounce), but nearly 60% of a $3-a-gram ounce.
5. Plan for 11 December. New federal hemp rules take most cheap hemp-THC products off the shelves. Their buyers are exactly the price-sensitive shoppers this study describes.

The study covers flower only and stops in 2023, and it measures association, not cause. Treat these as directions, not forecasts.

What I can’t do yet is tell you what to charge for each of your products. For that I need product-level data: prices, cost of goods, and sales by product and state. With it, I can run every product through every state’s taxes and recommend a price for each one.

If you’d like to try it, message me.

Information, not legal, tax or financial advice.

#cannabis #cannabislaw #pricing